Market review 23.10.08

Signs of stabilization

Hello everyone,

No doubt, the market has been challenging since August unless you’ve been heavily invested in uranium stocks.

However, there’s a lot to be optimistic about in the coming quarters. Much like late last year, we have a significant list of bullish data points for the broad market that I’ll cover today.

We’ll then look at tech specifically, as I believe that’s where the best medium-term opportunity lies. Finally, I’ll close with a summary of recent months and some caveats going forward.

Let’s dive in.

Broad Market

Equities are at significant support levels, with riskier segments outperforming and low retail sentiment. We could be at a key inflection point.

Absolute price charts: Stocks on support

• SPX, DIA, and many equity ETFs tagged their lower Bollinger Bands (BB) on the weekly charts. Meanwhile, TNX and VIX hit their upper BB (link)

• Japan’s Nikkei Index is testing a 3-year breakout, while India’s Nifty Index continues to hold a 2-year breakout.

Ratio charts continue to signal ‘risk-on’

• Defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) made new 52-week lows vs. SPX this week (link)

• Junk bonds are still holding up relative to Treasuries (Chart below)

• High-beta Bitcoin is holding up much better than small-cap stocks (link)