Market review 23.10.01

A recap of the year plus looking ahead

Hello everyone,

Friday marked the end of Q3. This is an excellent time to do a quick recap of the year and then discuss what could be in store for Q4.

YTD Review

In H1, some top-performing ETFs were ARKK and QQQ, each up about 40%. TLT and GDX were each up 5%. Meanwhile, WTI oil was down -12%.

But in Q3, things flipped the other way. Uranium and oil were the top performers. Japan value and US insurance stocks did alright. Meanwhile, TLT, ARKK, and GDX took a hit and were among the worst performers.

This dynamic between oil, rates, and growth vs. value stocks is something I’ve emphasized since last year.

By keeping this relationship in mind while following relative strength and breakouts, I over-weighted my portfolio in tech in H1. As new trends emerged in August, I gradually reduced tech exposure and added uranium, oil, and Japan stocks.

Backing up a little: In April, I added a paid tier to this blog, and in May, I began sharing my trades (plus custom reports) with members in real time on our private X feed. Here’s how we’ve done:

I will admit this was one of the more challenging years in trading. I keep referring to this as a “dynamic regime” with constant ebbs and flows, keeping us on our toes.

We’ve seen some clear trends so far in 2023. What could be in store for the remainder of the year?

Q4 Opportunities

When assessing future possibilities, we can only objectively look at current leadership, price charts, and positioning.