Hello everyone,
This blog has turned 30 months old!
It’s certainly been a very dynamic period in the markets. With over 140 blog posts now, I hope to have helped readers navigate through the volatility, focus on price, learn trading concepts, and profit.
What’s surprised me is just how much this blog (and private Twitter feed) has helped me:
It forces me to describe my trading approach concisely (see links 1, 2, 3, 4).
It forces me to organize my current market view each week and to present it in a simple, consistent, and rational manner.
It forces me to be transparent with my holdings and be held accountable when making trades.
It motivates me to expand my suite of custom reports (market positioning, leadership scans, and my portfolio’s analytics).
It allows me to learn from and stay grounded in prior analysis.
It allows me to interact with a micro-community of fans while making some modest income.
So, thank you for all the above and for being on this journey of continuing education together.
Now, onto the markets.
More bullish evidence
Between Jun-Oct last year, we saw the earliest signs of the market stabilizing, with home builders, financials, bitcoin, and Japan retesting major multi-year support levels.
By Nov and Dec, the bullish evidence for equity markets had grown: we got some of the first breakouts.
Below is a countdown of just some of the developments that occurred in the past month.
Four weeks ago, we could see many tech indices and ETFs breaking out of clean bases:
Two weeks ago, we could see defensive sectors breaking down relative to SPX:
A week ago, we could see the global equity ETF (VT) decisively emerging from a beautiful base:
This week, we saw the S&P 500 breakout to new highs relative to bonds!