Market review 22.09.25
Hello everyone,
It was a busy week of moving for me but given the market volatility, it was a good one to be away from my desk.
Major equity ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM) were down 5-7% this week.
Among the over 1,300 non-leveraged ETFs out there, the best performing one was CYA (a tail-risk strategy) posting a weekly gain of 20%. The second best, believe it or not, was UUP – the US dollar ETF.
Oil stocks were among the hardest hit this week. XOP and PSCE were each down over 13%.
Charts
US 30yr fixed mortgage rates continue their steep ascent higher and are approaching the highs from 2006-2007.
The impact on real estate is evident. The once hot Canadian housing market is currently in its largest percent drawdown in at least 25 years. Meanwhile, LAND (the largest farmland REIT) broke 16-month support this week.
Treasury bond yields also made new multi-decade highs this week. Rising bond yields have particularly been putting pressure on growth stocks. SOCL, ARK funds, and crypto have been the weakest parts of this market.
Does momentum take XLC down to the 2018 & 2020 lows?
Commodities were one of the few areas working in this market. While stocks, bonds, and non-US currencies were all trending lower in H1, oil & agriculture were trending up.
But this week, the S&P GSCI commodity index broke below the range it defended since March:
The question is, does everything fall at this point in the cycle?
Media Links
In a chat with Palantir CEO, Stan Druckenmiller said a few sentences about the market that’s had everyone talking on Fintwit. Stan discussed how it’s the toughest trading environment he’s encountered and that it can remain very tough for a decade or more, but certain stocks/sectors can do well. Indeed:
Technician John Roque was on the Market Huddle podcast this week. He gave his big picture analysis of markets, echoing Druckenmiller’s view. John reviewed the growth:value ratio, inflation, interest rates, and US Dollar. He also listed some great trading lessons & rules. Be sure to look at his chart book while listening: link.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Twitter: @alphacharts.
Important Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor and nothing I post is investment advice. The securities I discuss are considered highly risky so do your own due diligence.